This section provides detailed descriptions of the indicators used to construct the Trade sub-index of the Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index (GEOII). Each indicator captures a distinct aspect of trade interconnectivity between EU neighbouring countries and the four powers — the EU, United States, China, and Russia — over the period from 2010 to 2023. 

TRD_00 — Trade (Sub-index Overview): Measures the intensity, quality, and specialisation of bilateral trade flows, including goods, services, and sector-specific components such as intellectual property rights (IPRs). 

TRD_01 — Goods Exports to Powers: Proportion of goods exports from EU neighbours to each power, expressed as a percentage of their total exports. What it tells us: Indicates reliance on a specific power's market and the strength of bilateral goods trade ties. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_02 — Goods Imports from Powers: Proportion of goods imports by EU neighbours from each power, as a share of their total imports. What it tells us: Reflects dependence on powers for imported goods and the depth of trade relationships. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_03 — Services Exports to Powers: Share of services exports from EU neighbours to each power, as a percentage of total services exports. What it tells us: Captures cross-border services trade and market orientation. Source: OECD-WTO BaTIS 

TRD_04 — Services Imports from Powers: Share of services imports by EU neighbours from each power, as a percentage of total services imports. What it tells us: Highlights integration in cross-border services. Source: OECD-WTO BaTIS 

TRD_05 — Backward Integration in Global Value Chains (GVCs): Share of foreign value-added in exports of EU neighbours originating from each power. What it tells us: Reveals supply chain dependency and integration beyond direct trade. Source: EORA database 

TRD_06 — Forward Integration in Global Value Chains (GVCs): Domestic value-added in exports of EU neighbours that is re-exported by powers. What it tells us: Measures EU neighbours' contribution to global supply chains. Source: EORA database 

TRD_07 — Export Complementarity Index with Powers: Measures the match between EU neighbours’ export structures and each power's import profile (0 to 100 scale). What it tells us: Indicates potential for trade expansion and structural alignment. Source: World Bank WITS 

TRD_08 — Import Complementarity Index with Powers: Measures the match between EU neighbours’ import needs and powers' export profiles. What it tells us: Reflects potential for sourcing alignment and diversification. Source: World Bank WITS 

TRD_09 — Energy Goods Exports to Powers: Share of energy exports from EU neighbours to each power (SITC codes 32–35). What it tells us: Shows reliance on powers for exporting key energy commodities. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_10 — Energy Goods Imports from Powers: Share of energy imports by EU neighbours from each power. What it tells us: Measures dependency on powers for strategic energy inputs. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_11 — ICT Services Exports to Powers: Share of ICT services exports from EU neighbours to powers. What it tells us: Highlights integration in digital service sectors. Source: OECD-WTO BaTIS 

TRD_12 — ICT Services Imports from Powers: Share of ICT services imports by EU neighbours from powers. What it tells us: Indicates digital service reliance and cross-border IT linkages. Source: OECD-WTO BaTIS 

TRD_13 — High-Tech Exports to Powers: Share of high-tech goods exports from EU neighbours to each power. What it tells us: Captures technological trade depth and orientation. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_14 — High-Tech Imports from Powers: Share of high-tech goods imports by EU neighbours from powers. What it tells us: Reflects import reliance in high-technology sectors. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_15 — Green Goods Exports to Powers: Share of environmental goods exports to powers (HS Rev. 2017 codes). What it tells us: Indicates export strength in sustainability-linked sectors. Source: IMF Climate Dashboard 

TRD_16 — Green Goods Imports from Powers: Share of environmental goods imports from powers. What it tells us: Measures integration in green value chains. Source: IMF Climate Dashboard 

TRD_17 — Critical Raw Materials (CRM) Exports to Powers: Share of CRM exports from EU neighbours to each power, based on the EU’s 2023 CRM List. What it tells us: Captures dependence on powers for strategic material flows. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_18 — Critical Raw Materials (CRM) Imports from Powers: Share of CRM imports by EU neighbours from powers. What it tells us: Reflects vulnerability or strength in sourcing critical inputs. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_19 — Agri-Food Exports to Powers: Share of agricultural and food exports to each power (HS codes 01-24). What it tells us: Indicates importance of powers as markets for food production. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_20 — Agri-Food Imports from Powers: Share of agri-food imports from each power. What it tells us: Measures reliance on powers for food and agricultural inputs. Source: UN Comtrade; EU Comext for Kosovo 

TRD_21 — IPR Exports to Powers: Share of intellectual property rights (IPR) exports to powers (charges for use). What it tells us: Highlights innovation and knowledge flows between partners. Source: OECD-WTO BaTIS 

TRD_22 — IPR Imports from Powers: Share of IPR imports from powers. What it tells us: Reflects technological dependence and creative integration. Source: OECD-WTO BaTIS 

This section outlines the indicators that constitute the Finance sub-index of the Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index (GEOII). These indicators measure the strength and structure of financial ties between EU neighbouring countries and four powers (EU, US, China, Russia), focusing on investments, infrastructure, and external debt.

FIN_00 — Finance (Sub-index Overview): Measures financial interconnectivity through foreign direct investment (FDI), mergers and acquisitions (M&A), greenfield investments, and external debt relationships between EU neighbours and the powers.

FIN_01 — FDI Inward Stock from Powers:  Measures the share of inward FDI in each EU neighbour originating from each power, as a percentage of total inward FDI. What it tells us: Higher shares signal deeper long-term capital ties and potential strategic influence by the power. Sources: wiiw FDI Database, IMF CORDIS, UNCTADstat, Eurostat

FIN_02 — Mergers and Acquisitions with Powers: Measures the number of M&A deals with each power as a share of total M&A activity in the EU neighbour. What it tells us: Indicates cross-border integration in “brownfield” investments, reflecting market consolidation and financial interconnectedness. Source: ORBIS

FIN_03 — Greenfield Investment Projects from Powers: Measures the share of greenfield investment project announcements from each power in EU neighbours, by number of projects. What it tells us: Reflects how actively powers engage in launching new businesses and building infrastructure. Source: fDi Markets

FIN_04 — Greenfield Investment Capital from Powers: Measures the total announced capital of greenfield investments from each power in EU neighbours, expressed as a percentage of total announced capital. What it tells us: Captures the financial scale of planned greenfield investments and signals the depth of financial engagement. Source: fDi Markets

FIN_05 — Greenfield Investment in Infrastructure from Powers (Number of Projects): Measures the share of infrastructure-related greenfield investment projects from each power, by number. Infrastructure includes renewable energy, ICT, and select transport sectors. What it tells us: Indicates planned involvement in critical sectors shaping physical and digital infrastructure ties. Source: fDi Markets

FIN_06 — Greenfield Investment in Infrastructure from Powers (Total Capital Pledged): Measures the share of total pledged capital in infrastructure-related greenfield investment projects from each power. What it tells us: Highlights the financial commitment by powers to infrastructure development in strategic sectors. Source: fDi Markets

FIN_07 — External Debt Owed to Powers: Measures the share of a neighbour’s total external debt owed to each power, including EU institutions. What it tells us: Higher shares reflect greater financial exposure and potential leverage by the creditor power. Source: World Bank IDS

This section outlines the indicators that constitute the Policy sub-index of the Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index (GEOII). These indicators assess bilateral policy alignment between the EU's neighbouring countries and the four powers (EU, US, China, Russia) across areas such as trade agreements, regulatory convergence, sanctions, investment, and macroeconomic synchronisation.

POL_00 — Policies (Sub-index Overview): Measures alignment of economic policies between EU neighbours and the respective powers, including trade policies, sanctions, macroeconomic policy, and arms transfers.

POL_01 — Trade Agreements Depth Index with Powers: Measures the depth of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) based on 52 trade policy areas (0 to 1 scale). What it tells us: Higher values reflect deeper bilateral trade coordination and harmonisation beyond WTO rules. Source: World Bank DTA database

POL_02 — Similarity of Data Regulatory Framework with Powers Description: Measures alignment in data flow regulation (0 to 1 scale), covering open, conditional, and closed regimes. What it tells us: Indicates compatibility of cross-border digital regulations, which affect data and digital trade flows. Source: Ferracane & van der Marel (2024)

POL_03 — Import Tariffs of EU Neighbours Description: Simple average tariff rates applied by EU neighbours to imports from each power. What it tells us: Indicates trade openness and alignment from EU neighbours' side. Source: World Bank WITS

POL_04 — Import Tariffs of Powers Description: Average tariffs imposed by powers on imports from EU neighbours. What it tells us: Reflects reciprocal trade openness towards EU neighbours. Source: World Bank WITS

POL_05 — NTM Tariff Equivalents of EU Neighbours Description: Ad-valorem equivalent (AVE) of non-tariff measures (TBTs and SPS) applied by EU neighbours. What it tells us: Lower scores signal reduced regulatory trade barriers. Source: WTO I-TIP; Ghodsi et al. (2024)

POL_06 — NTM Tariff Equivalents of Powers Description: AVEs of NTMs imposed by powers on imports from EU neighbours. What it tells us: Captures technical trade barriers from the powers' side. Source: WTO I-TIP; Ghodsi et al. (2024)

POL_07 — NTM Regulatory Divergence Description: Scores regulatory divergence in NTMs (0 to 1 scale) between powers and EU neighbours. What it tells us: High divergence reflects difficult-to-align standards and fragmented policy environments. Source: WTO I-TIP; Cieślik & Ghodsi (2024)

POL_08 — Trade Sanctions Description: Binary indicator (0 or 1) for sanctions in place against EU neighbours. What it tells us: Reflects foreign policy tensions affecting trade ties. Source: Global Sanctions Database

POL_09 — Trade Restrictions Description: Measures amber/red restrictions imposed by powers on EU neighbours as a percentage of total. What it tells us: Higher percentages signal disruptive trade policies and reduced openness. Source: Global Trade Alert

POL_10 — Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) Description: Binary (0/1) for BITs in place. For EU, averaged across 27 Member States. What it tells us: Presence of a BIT signals stronger investment policy alignment. Source: UNCTAD IIA Navigator

POL_11 — Financial Sanctions Description: Binary indicator (0 or 1) for financial sanctions imposed by each power. What it tells us: High scores reflect restricted capital flows and investment risks. Source: Global Sanctions Database

POL_12 — Synchronicity of Monetary Policy Description: Pairwise correlation of interest rates between EU neighbours and powers (scale: -1 to 1). What it tells us: Indicates macro-financial policy convergence. Source: IMF IFS; national stats; Ca’ Zorzi et al. (2020); Martinez-Martin et al. (2018)

POL_13 — Synchronicity of Fiscal Policy Description: Correlation of annual government budget balances (as % of GDP) between neighbours and powers. What it tells us: Measures policy co-movement and shared economic cycles. Source: IMF WEO; Ca’ Zorzi et al. (2020); Martinez-Martin et al. (2018)

POL_14 — Arms Transfer Description: Share of total arms imports by EU neighbours sourced from each power, in SIPRI TIV. What it tells us: Indicates strategic defence ties and security dependence. Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database